冬季北半球风暴轴的多尺度能量变化特征及其可能机制     

李欣  朱伟军 《气象科学》2019,39(2):143-152

基于1971—2016年NCEP/NCAR(美国环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心)的逐日再分析资料及NCPC(美国国家海洋和大气管理局气候预报中心)的海温、大气环流及海洋指数等资料通过多尺度能量分析(MS-EVA)等方法,把冬季北半球风暴轴看做一整体,分析了风暴轴区域多尺度的能量变化特征及其可能机制。主要结论概括如下:(1)多年气候平均状态下,风暴轴的动能来源主要表现为在风暴轴中上游先由低频尺度向天气尺度输送有效位能,随后在风暴轴主体区再由天气尺度有效位能转换为天气尺度动能,其中风暴轴西端可直接由低频尺度向天气尺度输送动能。(2)北半球三大风暴轴联合EOF结果表明:第一模态下,主要体现了北西伯利亚风暴轴与北太平洋风暴轴强度的减弱(增强),同时伴随着北大西洋风暴轴位置北抬(南压);第二模态下,主要体现了北西伯利亚风暴轴强度减弱(增强),同时北太平洋风暴轴位置北抬(南压)中东部强度增强(减弱),而北大西洋风暴轴位置南压(北抬)。(3)回归分析表明:北半球风暴轴异常在不同模态下与低频尺度环流联系密切。低频尺度波动可通过海温及西风急流等异常变化先影响风暴轴区域多尺度间的能量转换,进而影响风暴轴整体的异常变化。  相似文献   

GRAPES全球集合预报系统模式扰动随机动能补偿方案初步探究   总被引：10，自引：5，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

彭飞  李晓莉  陈静  李红祺 《气象学报》2019,77(2):180-195

为了体现次网格尺度能量升尺度转换过程中存在的不确定性, 文中将随机动能补偿(Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter, SKEB)方案应用于GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球集合预报系统(GRAPES-GEPS), 以更好地表征模式误差并且增大集合离散度。使用的SKEB方案基于具有一定时、空相关特征的随机型以及由数值扩散导致的局地动能耗散率来构造随机流函数强迫。并根据流函数与水平风速旋转分量的关系, 将SKEB方案中的流函数强迫转化为适用于GRAPES全球模式的水平风速扰动。结果表明, SKEB方案的使用一方面能够提高GRAPES对大气动能谱的模拟能力; 另一方面能够改善GRAPES-GEPS的集合离散度与集合平均误差的关系, 增加了集合离散度, 并在一定程度上减小了集合平均误差, 尤其是在热带地区这种改进更为显著。而且该方案使得热带地区连续分级概率评分(CRPS评分)显著减小。就降水预报而言, 从Brier评分与相对作用特征面积(AROC, Area under the Relative Operating Characteristics)的结果来看, SKEB方案有助于改善中国地区小雨[0.1 mm, 10 mm)、中雨[10 mm, 25 mm)与大雨[25 mm, 50 mm)量级降水的概率预报技巧, 而对暴雨[50 mm, ∞)量级降水预报技巧影响很小(24 h降水量)。总体上, 模式扰动随机动能补偿方案提高了GRAPES-GEPS的概率预报技巧。   相似文献   

Response of ocean dynamics to multiple equilibria of the Kuroshio path South of Japan     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2019

Variability of the Kuroshio path to the south of Japan plays a central role in the local climate change and exerts tremendous influences on the local atmosphere and ocean. In this study, the response of ocean dynamics, in terms of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), potential vorticity (PV), relative vorticity, and eddy-mean flow interaction, to the Kuroshio path change is discussed. Kuroshio path south of Japan includes the near-shore non-large meander (nNLM), the off-shore non-large meander (oNLM), and the typical large meander (tLM). Analyses reveal that the distribution of EKE, PV, relative vorticity, and energy exchange between the eddy field and the mean flow respectively varies with the Kuroshio path: (1) The tLM has the maximum EKE along the path; (2) The positive and negative PV are located at the onshore and offshore side of Kuroshio axis, respevetively; (3) The distributions of anomalous relative voritcity of nNLM, oNLM, and tLM are consistent with sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs); (4) The tLM has the largest energy exchange between the eddy field and the mean flow in terms of the rate of barotropic energy conversion. On the other hand, the stability analysis of ocean currents suggests that the three Kuroshio paths south of Japan have their own intrinsic properties of the instability.  相似文献   

黄河源区多、少雪年土壤冻融特征分析     

姚闯  吕世华  王婷  王俊锋  马翠丽 《高原气象》2019,38(3):474-483

利用2011年10月至2017年12月黄河源区鄂陵湖野外观测数据,对比分析多雪年与少雪年土壤冻结与消融时间、土壤温湿度、地表能量分量的变化特征。结果表明:多雪年地表反照率偏高,净辐射偏低,地表感热输送偏低,土壤由热“源”转为热“汇”的时间晚于少雪年。积雪可减少土壤吸收辐射能量,减少地表感热通量,在土壤完全冻结期与消融期增大地表潜热通量,在完全冻结期,减少土壤向大气的热输送,在消融期,减少大气向土壤的热输送。积雪在冻结期有降温作用,使得多雪年土壤较早发生冻结,且同一时期土壤温度偏低;在完全冻结期有保温作用,使得土壤温度偏高;在消融期有保温(“凉”)作用,使得消融较晚,且同一时期土壤温度偏低。在整个积雪年内,多雪年浅层土壤湿度高于少雪年,积雪对浅层土壤有保湿作用。积雪使土壤开始冻结时间有所提前,开始消融的时间有所滞后,可延长该年土壤完全冻结持续天数。  相似文献   

Kinetic energy budget and moisture flux convergence analysis during interaction between two cyclonic systems: Case study     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2019

An analysis of the kinetic energy budget during a case of interaction between middle latitude and extratropical cyclones has been made in this work. Horizontal flux convergence constitutes a major energy sink. Generation of kinetic energy via cross-contour flow is a persistent source throughout the growth and decay periods. Dissipation of kinetic energy from subgrid to grid scales is an important source during the pre-storm period; it acts as a sink during the growth and decay periods. The major contribution to kinetic energy comes from a persistent upper tropospheric jet stream activity throughout the period of the cyclone development. The characteristics of moisture-flux components (divergent and rotational) along with precipitable water content for different tropospheric layers throughout the life cycle of our cyclone are also studied in this work. It is found that most of required humidity for our cyclone are initiated from Arabian Sea and then to some extent are reinforced over Gulf of Aden and east of central Africa and then by passing over Red sea enter to the south and south east of Mediterranean Sea. The rotational component of the moisture transport brings moisture from two regions; the first which is considered the main region is the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and north east of Sudan. The second source region is the Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. In the middle troposphere, the primary moisture source is found over central Africa, which in turn is traced to the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea. The upper-level moisture fluxes are weak and play a minor role over the area of interaction between two cyclones.  相似文献   

Reducing wind power curtailment in China: comparing the roles of coal power flexibility and improved dispatch     

Hong Lu  Qionghui Li  Ryan Wiser  Kevin Porter 《Climate Policy》2019,19(5):623-635

Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.

Key policy insights

• China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.

• China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.

• A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.

• China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.

  相似文献   

地下资源开采与诱发地震：现状与进展     

陈鹏  吴中海  马立成  周春景 《地质论评》2023,69(2):691-700

页岩气、地热等清洁能源正成为全球能源开发日益重要的组成部分,也是我国未来能源产量增长的主体,对保障能源资源安全、支撑双碳目标意义重大。然而随着页岩气、地热等地下工业开采活动规模的不断扩大,由此引发的地震灾害问题正日益受到人们的关注。强化工业活动与诱发地震关系研究、管控相关诱发地震灾害风险成为全球面临的重要课题和挑战。基于此,笔者等调研了工业活动诱发地震的全球典型案例,系统介绍了不同国家(美国、加拿大和韩国)工业活动诱发地震的现状及其差异,并对流体注入诱发地震的主要途径、物理机制、相关作业参数和诱发地震关系等做了全面的综述。发现诱发地震不仅与流体注入参数(体积、速率等)相关,还受控于特定的区域地质背景和断裂条件。合理管控地震灾害风险、促进相关能源的开采,应该统筹开采区地质地球物理的综合调查和开采过程的动态监测。  相似文献   

持续开挖效应下结构面剪切力学性质与能量特征研究     

郭佳奇  程立攀  朱斌忠  田永超  黄鑫 《岩土力学》2023,44(1):131-143

基于地下岩体工程开挖扰动的实际情况,开展考虑持续开挖效应,充分反映岩体结构面应力调整过程的结构面剪切试验更具理论意义和工程应用价值。采用人工劈裂方法制备岩体结构面,开展了常规应力路径和持续开挖效应下的结构面剪切试验,系统研究了两种条件下结构面剪切力学性质、声发射特征和能量的演化规律。研究结果表明：开挖扰动荷载强度越大,结构面发生剪切破坏时的剪应力降整体上越大,但持续开挖效应下的剪应力降最大值仅为常规应力路径下剪应力降的48.57%;考虑持续开挖效应的结构面剪切过程中声发射活动主要集中于结构面受剪破坏和剪应力降产生时,且声发射活动强度与开挖扰动强度正相关,声发射振铃计数变化率极值明显小于常规应力路径下的相应值;持续开挖效应下试样裂纹发育密集度、结构面磨损区域及破坏程度均随开挖扰动强度增加而增加,但试样裂纹发育的密集程度和结构面破坏程度相对常规应力路径下的情况轻;考虑持续开挖效应的结构面发生剪切破坏时弹性应变能随扰动荷载增大而增大,均低于常规应力路径条件下的弹性应变能值,持续开挖效应降低了结构面剪切破坏的强度,但更易引发结构面发生剪切破坏。  相似文献   

Abiotic Methane Reservoirs in the Western Tianshan HP–UHP Metamorphic Belt,China          下载免费PDF全文

ZHANG Lijuan  ZHANG Lifei  LI Xiaowei  WANG Xiao 《《地质学报》英文版》2023,97(1):337-349

Natural gas, consisting primarily of methane(CH₄), has become a major source of clean energy in modern society in many parts of the globe. Recent experimental observations and discoveries of deep-sourced abiotic CH₄ in cold subduction zones indicate the important ability of cold subducted slabs to generate natural gas reservoirs. However, most CH₄ flux and reservoirs remain unknown and their potential is overlooked in global carbon flux estimations. Massive abiot...  相似文献   

基于热流固耦合的增强型地热有机朗肯循环发电系统性能分析     

王令宝  郭志鹏  卜宪标  李华山  龚宇烈 《地球学报》2023,44(1):211-220

本文建立了耦合井筒、热储、有机朗肯循环发电系统的详细数学模型, 包括三维非稳态热流固耦合模型和有机朗肯循环发电系统热动力学模型, 参考青海省共和县恰卜恰干热岩体地热地质特征, 包括压裂储层、围岩、裂隙、井筒等特征参数, 研究了注入流量、注入温度和井间距对系统净输出功、年均净输出功和热效率的影响规律。结果表明: 在一定的注入流量、注入温度和净间距下, 随着时间的推移, 岩石孔隙压力和热应力作用使得裂隙渗透率增大, 注入泵功耗是降低的, 净输出功和热效率也是降低的。注入流量的增大提高了膨胀机轴功、注入泵功耗和生产温度衰减速率, 进而导致热效率降低, 存在最优的注入流量50 kg/s, 使得年均净输出功达到最大值1 470.1 kW。注入温度的增大可以提高系统热效率, 降低净输出功的年均衰减速率, 当注入温度为60 ℃时, 年均净输出功最大。井间距的增大减缓了生产温度的衰减速率, 有利于热效率的提高, 但是也同时也增大了膨胀机轴功和注入泵功耗。当分支井间距为450 m时, 年均净输出功达到最大值1 497.3 kW。此研究可为增强地热发电系统的开发利用提供指导。  相似文献